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The South of England has suffered recurrent bouts of malaria in recorded history. For centuries 'ague' was endemic in the fens and marshes of the Thames estuary. While most areas exhibited rates of around 20-30 deaths per 1,000 per annum, marshland communities straddling the Thames had rates often exceeding 70 per 1,000. Epidemics of 'ague' were associated with warmer ambient
temperatures. A positive correlation was noted between warm, dry summers
between 1660 and 1810 and seasonal burial rates in Bradwell-juxta-Mare, a marsh
parish in Essex. There was an unusually hot summer in 1661 in which, according
to Pepys
"Return of indigenous malaria in the UK has not yet
occurred. The greater availability of cheap tropical and subtropical travel
will result in more primary infections of humans with blood that could infect
home grown mosquitoes. With increased global warming, occasional cases of
secondary malaria will occur in UK residents who have not been abroad but the
average tertiary spread will be to less than one other human and thus malaria
will not establish itself (for malaria to persist, on average a patient with
malaria would have to transmit infection to at least one other human, otherwise
the infection would die out). Within the next few decades tertiary spread of
infection may occur in the UK, with spread to at least one other person.
Indigenous malaria will then be with us." Many people in the area note the size and virulence of the local mosquitoes which are generally of the anopheles group of the species - the beasts that used to carry malaria in the past. It is possible that they could carry the disease again in the future. However, the standard of housing, sanitation, hygiene and general health has changed a great deal since the beginning of the last century and as those were considered to be as much of a problem as the disease itself the likelihood of such epidemics is slight. |
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